The latest polls on the Arab-American vote show Kerry still with a comfortable lead on Bush, but Bush is consolidating his support among declared Republicans and among Christian Arabs (who form a substantial percentage of all Arab-Americans; the terms "Arab-American" and "Muslim" are anything but identical). Muslim Arabs are much more strongly opposed to Bush (unfortunately the article seems to be missing a word; it says that "two out of every Muslim Americans support Kerry". Two out of every what? Two out of every three? Four? Five?)
Kerry's problem seems to be that he is not capitalizing on his opportunity:
To AAI president James Zogby, it also suggests Kerry's campaign has been unable to take advantage of Arab Americans' clear unhappiness with Bush, particularly regarding his policies in the Middle East. "While Kerry might have secured as much as two-thirds of the Arab-American vote, he remains at less than one-half," said Zogby. "This constituency was clearly ready for a change, but Kerry's campaign has failed to do outreach to Arab-American voters and to define their candidate and his positions." Zogby's analysis accords with at least two other minority ethnic groups, Asian Americans and Hispanic Americans. As with Arab Americans, Kerry's lead among voters in those two groups is fairly substantial, but his campaign's failure to devote more resources and time to cultivating their base, particularly through their communities' media, has been widely criticized by observers who say that Kerry could be making much more headway.